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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199907

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
3
6
0
1
7
8
8
4
5
17
8
8
15
31

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
3
6
8
13
20
41
8
4
5
17
16
20
28
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
10
10
19
0
3
23
26
26
13
16
55
26
26
48
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
5
5
9
13
20
31
64
13
6
8
27
25
31
44
100

hitrate: 0.194 hitrate: 0.281
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.75 1.00 1.13
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.38 2.05 0.61
Heidke skill score: -0.210 Heidke skill score: -0.078
true Heidke skill score: -0.305 true Heidke skill score: -0.089
Kuipers skill score: -0.210 Kuipers skill score: -0.078
true Kuipers skill score: -0.298 true Kuipers skill score: -0.090
threat score:
0.000 0.067 0.185
threat score:
0.000 0.271 0.125
equitable threat score:
-0.124 -0.082 -0.172
equitable threat score:
-0.073 0.005 -0.075
probability of detection:
0.000 0.125 0.333
probability of detection:
0.000 0.650 0.179
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.875 0.706
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.683 0.706
samples: 31 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 48.44 %coverage: 100.00