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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199908

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
6
3
16
2
1
3
6
0
1
4
5
9
8
10
27

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
6
3
16
7
14
22
43
0
1
4
5
14
21
29
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
26
22
11
59
7
4
11
22
0
4
15
19
33
30
37
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
11
9
5
25
11
22
34
67
0
2
6
8
22
33
45
100

hitrate: 0.444 hitrate: 0.391
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.78 0.75 0.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.14 2.05 0.17
Heidke skill score: 0.167 Heidke skill score: 0.086
true Heidke skill score: 0.168 true Heidke skill score: 0.116
Kuipers skill score: 0.167 Kuipers skill score: 0.086
true Kuipers skill score: 0.169 true Kuipers skill score: 0.125
threat score:
0.389 0.077 0.364
threat score:
0.304 0.280 0.133
equitable threat score:
0.132 -0.069 0.235
equitable threat score:
0.179 -0.003 0.063
probability of detection:
0.778 0.125 0.400
probability of detection:
0.500 0.667 0.138
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.562 0.833 0.200
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.562 0.674 0.200
samples: 27 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 42.19 %coverage: 100.00