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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199501

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: monthly Optimal Climate Normal Precip
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
2
5
0
0
0
0
1
3
4
8
2
5
6
13

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
2
5
7
10
28
45
1
3
4
8
9
15
34
58

% contingency table
fcst
obs
8
15
15
38
0
0
0
0
8
23
31
62
15
38
46
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
3
3
9
12
17
48
78
2
5
7
14
16
26
59
100

hitrate: 0.385 hitrate: 0.259
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.50 0.00 1.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.56 3.00 0.24
Heidke skill score: 0.077 Heidke skill score: -0.112
true Heidke skill score: 0.063 true Heidke skill score: -0.051
Kuipers skill score: 0.077 Kuipers skill score: -0.112
true Kuipers skill score: 0.067 true Kuipers skill score: -0.064
threat score:
0.167 0.000 0.400
threat score:
0.077 0.200 0.105
equitable threat score:
0.044 0.000 0.049
equitable threat score:
0.018 -0.043 -0.021
probability of detection:
0.500 0.000 0.667
probability of detection:
0.111 0.667 0.118
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.800 0.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.800 0.778 0.500
samples: 13 out of 58 samples: 58 out of 58
%coverage: 22.41 %coverage: 100.00