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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199502

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: monthly Optimal Climate Normal Precip
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
1
0
4
0
0
0
0
4
4
0
8
7
5
0
12

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
1
0
4
18
22
6
46
4
4
0
8
25
27
6
58

% contingency table
fcst
obs
25
8
0
33
0
0
0
0
33
33
0
67
58
42
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
2
0
7
31
38
10
79
7
7
0
14
43
47
10
100

hitrate: 0.250 hitrate: 0.431
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.57 0.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.16 1.70 1.33
Heidke skill score: -0.125 Heidke skill score: 0.147
true Heidke skill score: 0.069 true Heidke skill score: 0.030
Kuipers skill score: -0.125 Kuipers skill score: 0.147
true Kuipers skill score: 0.114 true Kuipers skill score: 0.030
threat score:
0.375 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.115 0.431 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.118 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.053 0.020 -0.063
probability of detection:
0.429 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.120 0.815 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.250 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.250 0.522 1.000
samples: 12 out of 58 samples: 58 out of 58
%coverage: 20.69 %coverage: 100.00