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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199503

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: monthly Optimal Climate Normal Precip
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
3
1
1
1
3

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
17
20
17
54
1
1
1
3
18
21
18
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
33
33
33
100
33
33
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
30
35
30
95
2
2
2
5
32
37
32
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.368
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 3.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.57 0.17
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: 0.053
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.004
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: 0.053
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.004
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.333
threat score:
0.000 0.364 0.050
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.003 0.003
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.952 0.056
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.630 0.667
samples: 3 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 5.26 %coverage: 100.00