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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199507

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: monthly Optimal Climate Normal Precip
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
0
2
1
2
0
3
0
0
2
2
2
3
2
7

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
0
2
19
16
19
54
0
0
2
2
20
17
21
58

% contingency table
fcst
obs
14
14
0
29
14
29
0
43
0
0
29
29
29
43
29
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
0
3
33
28
33
93
0
0
3
3
34
29
36
100

hitrate: 0.714 hitrate: 0.328
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 1.00 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.10 3.18 0.10
Heidke skill score: 0.571 Heidke skill score: -0.009
true Heidke skill score: 0.562 true Heidke skill score: 0.043
Kuipers skill score: 0.571 Kuipers skill score: -0.009
true Kuipers skill score: 0.562 true Kuipers skill score: 0.046
threat score:
0.333 0.500 1.000
threat score:
0.048 0.291 0.095
equitable threat score:
0.176 0.263 1.000
equitable threat score:
0.015 0.004 0.063
probability of detection:
0.500 0.667 1.000
probability of detection:
0.050 0.941 0.095
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.333 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.704 0.000
samples: 7 out of 58 samples: 58 out of 58
%coverage: 12.07 %coverage: 100.00