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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199508

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: monthly Optimal Climate Normal Precip
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
1
3
0
0
1
1
2
1
0
3
3
2
2
7

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
1
3
20
19
13
52
2
1
0
3
23
21
14
58

% contingency table
fcst
obs
14
14
14
43
0
0
14
14
29
14
0
43
43
29
29
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
2
5
34
33
22
90
3
2
0
5
40
36
24
100

hitrate: 0.143 hitrate: 0.345
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.50 1.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.13 2.48 0.21
Heidke skill score: -0.286 Heidke skill score: 0.017
true Heidke skill score: -0.313 true Heidke skill score: -0.020
Kuipers skill score: -0.286 Kuipers skill score: 0.017
true Kuipers skill score: -0.313 true Kuipers skill score: -0.020
threat score:
0.200 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.040 0.352 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.077 -0.105 -0.207
equitable threat score:
-0.008 0.005 -0.044
probability of detection:
0.333 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.043 0.905 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 1.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.635 1.000
samples: 7 out of 58 samples: 58 out of 58
%coverage: 12.07 %coverage: 100.00