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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199509

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: monthly Optimal Climate Normal Precip
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
0
1
4
2
0
0
2
0
1
0
1
5
1
1
7

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
0
1
4
17
19
17
53
0
1
0
1
20
20
18
58

% contingency table
fcst
obs
43
0
14
57
29
0
0
29
0
14
0
14
71
14
14
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
0
2
7
29
33
29
91
0
2
0
2
34
34
31
100

hitrate: 0.429 hitrate: 0.379
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.80 2.00 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.20 2.65 0.06
Heidke skill score: 0.143 Heidke skill score: 0.069
true Heidke skill score: -0.077 true Heidke skill score: 0.053
Kuipers skill score: 0.143 Kuipers skill score: 0.069
true Kuipers skill score: -0.091 true Kuipers skill score: 0.053
threat score:
0.500 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.143 0.352 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.045 -0.105 -0.077
equitable threat score:
0.083 0.020 -0.017
probability of detection:
0.600 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.150 0.950 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.250 1.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.250 0.642 1.000
samples: 7 out of 58 samples: 58 out of 58
%coverage: 12.07 %coverage: 100.00