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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199511

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: monthly Optimal Climate Normal Precip
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
5
8
3
16
6
8
3
17

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
15
11
14
40
5
8
3
16
21
19
17
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
6
0
0
6
0
0
0
0
29
47
18
94
35
47
18
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
26
19
25
70
9
14
5
28
37
33
30
100

hitrate: 0.235 hitrate: 0.263
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.17 0.00 5.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.05 2.11 0.94
Heidke skill score: -0.147 Heidke skill score: -0.105
true Heidke skill score: 0.060 true Heidke skill score: -0.090
Kuipers skill score: -0.147 Kuipers skill score: -0.105
true Kuipers skill score: 0.078 true Kuipers skill score: -0.092
threat score:
0.167 0.000 0.188
threat score:
0.048 0.229 0.100
equitable threat score:
0.115 0.000 0.013
equitable threat score:
0.031 -0.067 -0.070
probability of detection:
0.167 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.048 0.579 0.176
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.812
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.725 0.812
samples: 17 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 29.82 %coverage: 100.00