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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199512

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: monthly Optimal Climate Normal Precip
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
3
6
0
0
0
0
1
1
2
4
2
3
5
10

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
3
6
18
20
9
47
1
1
2
4
20
23
14
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
10
20
30
60
0
0
0
0
10
10
20
40
20
30
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
4
5
11
32
35
16
82
2
2
4
7
35
40
25
100

hitrate: 0.300 hitrate: 0.404
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.00 0.00 0.80
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.30 2.04 0.29
Heidke skill score: -0.050 Heidke skill score: 0.105
true Heidke skill score: -0.029 true Heidke skill score: 0.027
Kuipers skill score: -0.050 Kuipers skill score: 0.105
true Kuipers skill score: -0.032 true Kuipers skill score: 0.025
threat score:
0.143 0.000 0.286
threat score:
0.040 0.400 0.125
equitable threat score:
-0.034 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.048 0.033 0.068
probability of detection:
0.500 0.000 0.400
probability of detection:
0.050 0.870 0.143
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.833 0.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.833 0.574 0.500
samples: 10 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 17.54 %coverage: 100.00