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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199602

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: monthly Optimal Climate Normal Precip
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
1
0
0
1
3
0
0
3
4
0
1
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
26
13
14
53
3
0
0
3
29
13
15
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
20
20
20
0
0
20
60
0
0
60
80
0
20
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
2
2
46
23
25
93
5
0
0
5
51
23
26
100

hitrate: 0.000 hitrate: 0.228
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.25 -- 3.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.03 4.08 0.20
Heidke skill score: -0.500 Heidke skill score: -0.158
true Heidke skill score: -0.389 true Heidke skill score: -0.009
Kuipers skill score: -0.500 Kuipers skill score: -0.158
true Kuipers skill score: -0.875 true Kuipers skill score: -0.011
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.245 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.190 0.000 -0.176
equitable threat score:
-0.017 0.022 -0.046
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.755 1.000
samples: 5 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 8.77 %coverage: 100.00