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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199604

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: monthly Optimal Climate Normal Precip
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
3
4
0
1
3
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
20
14
19
53
0
1
3
4
20
15
22
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
25
75
100
0
25
75
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
35
25
33
93
0
2
5
7
35
26
39
100

hitrate: 0.750 hitrate: 0.298
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 1.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.53 0.18
Heidke skill score: 0.625 Heidke skill score: -0.053
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.036
Kuipers skill score: 0.625 Kuipers skill score: -0.053
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.040
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.750
threat score:
0.000 0.259 0.130
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.001 0.068
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.933 0.136
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.250
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.736 0.250
samples: 4 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 7.02 %coverage: 100.00