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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199605

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: monthly Optimal Climate Normal Precip
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
0
3
0
1
0
1
2
0
1
3
3
3
1
7

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
0
3
15
12
24
51
2
0
1
3
18
14
25
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
14
29
0
43
0
14
0
14
29
0
14
43
43
43
14
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
4
0
5
26
21
42
89
4
0
2
5
32
25
44
100

hitrate: 0.429 hitrate: 0.246
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.33 3.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.17 3.64 0.12
Heidke skill score: 0.143 Heidke skill score: -0.132
true Heidke skill score: 0.176 true Heidke skill score: -0.019
Kuipers skill score: 0.143 Kuipers skill score: -0.132
true Kuipers skill score: 0.200 true Kuipers skill score: -0.021
threat score:
0.200 0.333 0.333
threat score:
0.050 0.226 0.037
equitable threat score:
-0.077 0.222 0.222
equitable threat score:
0.003 -0.013 -0.012
probability of detection:
0.333 0.333 1.000
probability of detection:
0.056 0.857 0.040
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.000 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.765 0.667
samples: 7 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 12.28 %coverage: 100.00