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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199607

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: monthly Optimal Climate Normal Precip
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
0
1
2
3
1
0
3
4
2
1
5
8

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
14
19
19
52
1
0
3
4
16
19
22
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
13
0
0
13
0
13
25
38
13
0
38
50
25
13
63
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
25
33
33
91
2
0
5
7
28
33
39
100

hitrate: 0.625 hitrate: 0.404
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 3.00 0.80
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.06 2.74 0.18
Heidke skill score: 0.438 Heidke skill score: 0.105
true Heidke skill score: 0.385 true Heidke skill score: 0.102
Kuipers skill score: 0.438 Kuipers skill score: 0.105
true Kuipers skill score: 0.441 true Kuipers skill score: 0.102
threat score:
0.500 0.333 0.500
threat score:
0.062 0.365 0.130
equitable threat score:
0.429 0.238 0.143
equitable threat score:
0.046 0.048 0.068
probability of detection:
0.500 1.000 0.600
probability of detection:
0.062 1.000 0.136
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.667 0.250
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.635 0.250
samples: 8 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 14.04 %coverage: 100.00