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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199609

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: monthly Optimal Climate Normal Precip
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
0
4
0
2
0
2
0
1
0
1
2
5
0
7

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
0
4
8
23
21
52
0
1
0
1
10
26
21
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
29
29
0
57
0
29
0
29
0
14
0
14
29
71
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
4
0
7
14
40
37
91
0
2
0
2
18
46
37
100

hitrate: 0.571 hitrate: 0.439
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.00 0.40 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.40 2.00 0.05
Heidke skill score: 0.357 Heidke skill score: 0.158
true Heidke skill score: 0.323 true Heidke skill score: 0.007
Kuipers skill score: 0.357 Kuipers skill score: 0.158
true Kuipers skill score: 0.500 true Kuipers skill score: 0.006
threat score:
0.500 0.400 0.000
threat score:
0.167 0.418 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.300 0.160 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.115 -0.023 -0.017
probability of detection:
1.000 0.400 0.000
probability of detection:
0.200 0.885 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.558 1.000
samples: 7 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 12.28 %coverage: 100.00