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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199611

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: monthly Optimal Climate Normal Precip
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
5
2
7
14
5
3
7
15

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
6
18
17
41
5
2
7
14
11
21
24
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
7
0
7
0
0
0
0
33
13
47
93
33
20
47
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
0
2
11
32
30
73
9
4
13
25
20
38
43
100

hitrate: 0.467 hitrate: 0.446
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.20 0.00 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.09 1.95 0.58
Heidke skill score: 0.200 Heidke skill score: 0.170
true Heidke skill score: 0.016 true Heidke skill score: 0.100
Kuipers skill score: 0.200 Kuipers skill score: 0.170
true Kuipers skill score: 0.014 true Kuipers skill score: 0.096
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.500
threat score:
0.000 0.409 0.226
equitable threat score:
-0.059 0.000 0.062
equitable threat score:
-0.017 0.092 0.040
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.857 0.292
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.561 0.500
samples: 15 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 26.79 %coverage: 100.00