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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199612

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: monthly Optimal Climate Normal Precip
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
2
3
0
0
2
2
4
0
0
4
5
0
4
9

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
2
3
13
12
25
50
4
0
0
4
18
12
27
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
11
0
22
33
0
0
22
22
44
0
0
44
56
0
44
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
4
5
23
21
44
88
7
0
0
7
32
21
47
100

hitrate: 0.111 hitrate: 0.228
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.60 -- 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.17 4.17 0.15
Heidke skill score: -0.333 Heidke skill score: -0.158
true Heidke skill score: -0.440 true Heidke skill score: -0.008
Kuipers skill score: -0.333 Kuipers skill score: -0.158
true Kuipers skill score: -0.550 true Kuipers skill score: -0.010
threat score:
0.143 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.050 0.240 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.125 0.000 -0.286
equitable threat score:
0.003 0.037 -0.065
probability of detection:
0.200 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.056 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 1.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.760 1.000
samples: 9 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 15.79 %coverage: 100.00