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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199701

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: monthly Optimal Climate Normal Precip
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
0
1
1
2
2
2
2
6
2
3
4
9

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
8
19
23
50
2
2
2
6
10
21
26
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
11
11
0
11
11
22
22
22
22
67
22
33
44
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
2
2
14
33
40
88
4
4
4
11
18
37
46
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.368
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 0.67 1.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.10 2.38 0.23
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: 0.053
true Heidke skill score: -0.102 true Heidke skill score: -0.009
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: 0.053
true Kuipers skill score: -0.096 true Kuipers skill score: -0.009
threat score:
0.000 0.250 0.250
threat score:
0.000 0.365 0.067
equitable threat score:
-0.080 0.100 -0.125
equitable threat score:
-0.016 0.017 -0.027
probability of detection:
0.000 0.333 0.500
probability of detection:
0.000 0.905 0.077
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.500 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.620 0.667
samples: 9 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 15.79 %coverage: 100.00