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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199706

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: monthly Optimal Climate Normal Precip
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
2
2
5
1
2
3
6

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
11
16
25
52
1
2
2
5
12
18
27
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
17
17
17
33
33
83
17
33
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
19
28
44
91
2
4
4
9
21
32
47
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.316
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.50 1.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.89 0.19
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: -0.026
true Heidke skill score: -0.263 true Heidke skill score: -0.021
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: -0.026
true Kuipers skill score: -0.227 true Kuipers skill score: -0.022
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.333
threat score:
0.000 0.296 0.067
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.125 -0.143
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.011 -0.013
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.667
probability of detection:
0.000 0.889 0.074
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.600
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.692 0.600
samples: 6 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 10.53 %coverage: 100.00