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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199708

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: monthly Optimal Climate Normal Precip
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
1
3
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
2
4
0
1
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
1
3
12
22
18
52
2
0
0
2
16
22
19
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
40
0
20
60
0
0
0
0
40
0
0
40
80
0
20
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
0
2
5
21
39
32
91
4
0
0
4
28
39
33
100

hitrate: 0.400 hitrate: 0.421
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.75 -- 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.19 2.36 0.11
Heidke skill score: 0.100 Heidke skill score: 0.132
true Heidke skill score: -0.364 true Heidke skill score: 0.068
Kuipers skill score: 0.100 Kuipers skill score: 0.132
true Kuipers skill score: -0.500 true Kuipers skill score: 0.064
threat score:
0.400 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.118 0.423 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.154 0.000 -0.154
equitable threat score:
0.072 0.060 -0.033
probability of detection:
0.500 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.125 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.333 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.333 0.577 1.000
samples: 5 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 8.77 %coverage: 100.00