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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199709

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: monthly Optimal Climate Normal Precip
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
2
5
1
0
0
1
0
1
2
3
2
3
4
9

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
2
5
10
25
14
49
0
1
2
3
11
28
18
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
11
22
22
56
11
0
0
11
0
11
22
33
22
33
44
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
4
4
9
18
44
25
86
0
2
4
5
19
49
32
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.491
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.50 0.33 0.75
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.45 1.75 0.17
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: 0.237
true Heidke skill score: 0.036 true Heidke skill score: 0.065
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: 0.237
true Kuipers skill score: 0.038 true Kuipers skill score: 0.057
threat score:
0.167 0.000 0.400
threat score:
0.067 0.481 0.105
equitable threat score:
-0.023 -0.091 0.182
equitable threat score:
0.002 0.033 0.058
probability of detection:
0.500 0.000 0.500
probability of detection:
0.091 0.893 0.111
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.800 1.000 0.333
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.800 0.490 0.333
samples: 9 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 15.79 %coverage: 100.00