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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199712

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: monthly Optimal Climate Normal Precip
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
1
0
0
3
3
1
0
4
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
27
14
12
53
0
0
3
3
28
14
15
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
20
0
0
20
0
0
20
20
0
0
60
60
20
0
80
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
47
25
21
93
0
0
5
5
49
25
26
100

hitrate: 0.800 hitrate: 0.316
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 -- 0.75
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.04 3.79 0.20
Heidke skill score: 0.700 Heidke skill score: -0.026
true Heidke skill score: 0.583 true Heidke skill score: 0.087
Kuipers skill score: 0.700 Kuipers skill score: -0.026
true Kuipers skill score: 0.875 true Kuipers skill score: 0.103
threat score:
1.000 0.000 0.750
threat score:
0.036 0.264 0.200
equitable threat score:
1.000 0.000 0.375
equitable threat score:
0.018 0.025 0.156
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.750
probability of detection:
0.036 1.000 0.200
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.736 0.000
samples: 5 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 8.77 %coverage: 100.00