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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199802

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: monthly Optimal Climate Normal Precip
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
2
1
0
3
2
1
1
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
5
13
35
53
2
1
0
3
7
14
36
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
25
25
0
0
0
0
50
25
0
75
50
25
25
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
2
2
9
23
61
93
4
2
0
5
12
25
63
100

hitrate: 0.000 hitrate: 0.228
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 0.00 3.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.14 3.79 0.08
Heidke skill score: -0.500 Heidke skill score: -0.158
true Heidke skill score: -0.455 true Heidke skill score: -0.048
Kuipers skill score: -0.500 Kuipers skill score: -0.158
true Kuipers skill score: -0.500 true Kuipers skill score: -0.068
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.241 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.200 0.000 -0.231
equitable threat score:
-0.016 0.000 -0.051
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.929 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.755 1.000
samples: 4 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 7.02 %coverage: 100.00