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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199803

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: monthly Optimal Climate Normal Precip
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
3
2
1
1
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
2
19
32
53
1
1
1
3
4
20
33
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
25
0
0
25
0
0
0
0
25
25
25
75
50
25
25
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
4
33
56
93
2
2
2
5
7
35
58
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.368
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 0.00 3.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.25 2.65 0.09
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.053
true Heidke skill score: 0.273 true Heidke skill score: 0.016
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.053
true Kuipers skill score: 0.300 true Kuipers skill score: 0.019
threat score:
0.500 0.000 0.333
threat score:
0.250 0.352 0.029
equitable threat score:
0.333 0.000 0.111
equitable threat score:
0.237 0.011 -0.022
probability of detection:
0.500 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.250 0.950 0.030
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.642 0.667
samples: 4 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 7.02 %coverage: 100.00