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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199903

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: monthly Optimal Climate Normal Precip
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
1
0
0
1
2
0
3
5
3
1
3
7

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
28
17
13
58
2
0
3
5
30
18
16
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
14
0
14
14
0
0
14
29
0
43
71
43
14
43
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
0
2
44
27
20
91
3
0
5
8
47
28
25
100

hitrate: 0.429 hitrate: 0.312
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.33 1.00 1.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.03 3.22 0.31
Heidke skill score: 0.143 Heidke skill score: -0.031
true Heidke skill score: 0.067 true Heidke skill score: 0.043
Kuipers skill score: 0.143 Kuipers skill score: -0.031
true Kuipers skill score: 0.067 true Kuipers skill score: 0.048
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.600
threat score:
0.000 0.288 0.167
equitable threat score:
-0.120 -0.077 0.300
equitable threat score:
-0.015 0.016 0.104
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.944 0.188
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 0.400
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.707 0.400
samples: 7 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 10.94 %coverage: 100.00