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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199905

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: monthly Optimal Climate Normal Precip
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
1
0
4
0
0
1
1
1
2
0
3
4
3
1
8

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
1
0
4
16
23
17
56
1
2
0
3
20
26
17
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
38
13
0
50
0
0
13
13
13
25
0
38
50
38
13
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
2
0
6
25
37
27
89
2
3
0
5
32
41
27
100

hitrate: 0.375 hitrate: 0.413
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.33 3.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.20 2.15 0.18
Heidke skill score: 0.062 Heidke skill score: 0.119
true Heidke skill score: 0.048 true Heidke skill score: 0.021
Kuipers skill score: 0.062 Kuipers skill score: 0.119
true Kuipers skill score: 0.053 true Kuipers skill score: 0.020
threat score:
0.600 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.143 0.390 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.333 -0.103 -0.103
equitable threat score:
0.088 -0.003 -0.042
probability of detection:
0.750 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.150 0.885 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.250 1.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.250 0.589 1.000
samples: 8 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 12.70 %coverage: 100.00