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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199906

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: monthly Optimal Climate Normal Precip
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
3
5
1
1
3
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
10
21
27
58
1
1
3
5
11
22
30
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
20
20
60
100
20
20
60
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
16
33
43
92
2
2
5
8
17
35
48
100

hitrate: 0.600 hitrate: 0.381
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 1.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.64 0.17
Heidke skill score: 0.400 Heidke skill score: 0.071
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.034
Kuipers skill score: 0.400 Kuipers skill score: 0.071
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.035
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.600
threat score:
0.000 0.356 0.094
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.019 0.021
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.955 0.100
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.400
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.638 0.400
samples: 5 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 7.94 %coverage: 100.00