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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199907

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: monthly Optimal Climate Normal Precip
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
1
2
0
0
0
0
2
2
2
6
2
3
3
8

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
1
2
24
22
9
55
2
2
2
6
26
25
12
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
13
13
25
0
0
0
0
25
25
25
75
25
38
38
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
2
3
38
35
14
87
3
3
3
10
41
40
19
100

hitrate: 0.250 hitrate: 0.381
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.00 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.08 2.20 0.50
Heidke skill score: -0.125 Heidke skill score: 0.071
true Heidke skill score: -0.143 true Heidke skill score: 0.005
Kuipers skill score: -0.125 Kuipers skill score: 0.071
true Kuipers skill score: -0.143 true Kuipers skill score: 0.005
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.286
threat score:
0.000 0.379 0.125
equitable threat score:
-0.143 0.000 -0.053
equitable threat score:
-0.030 0.005 0.058
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.667
probability of detection:
0.000 0.880 0.167
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.600 0.667
samples: 8 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 12.70 %coverage: 100.00