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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199909

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: monthly Optimal Climate Normal Precip
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
1
1
0
2
0
0
1
1
1
1
2
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
21
21
19
61
0
0
1
1
21
21
21
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
25
25
25
25
0
50
0
0
25
25
25
25
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
2
2
33
33
30
97
0
0
2
2
33
33
33
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.349
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 2.00 0.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.05 2.90 0.05
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.024
true Heidke skill score: 0.273 true Heidke skill score: 0.024
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.024
true Kuipers skill score: 0.300 true Kuipers skill score: 0.024
threat score:
0.000 0.500 0.500
threat score:
0.000 0.344 0.048
equitable threat score:
-0.143 0.333 0.333
equitable threat score:
-0.015 0.016 0.032
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.500
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.048
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.500 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.656 0.000
samples: 4 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 6.35 %coverage: 100.00