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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199911

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: monthly Optimal Climate Normal Precip
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
3
2
1
6
8
1
0
9
12
3
1
16

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
33
15
5
53
8
1
0
9
42
16
5
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
6
0
0
6
19
13
6
38
50
6
0
56
75
19
6
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
52
24
8
84
13
2
0
14
67
25
8
100

hitrate: 0.188 hitrate: 0.254
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.08 2.00 9.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.02 3.31 1.80
Heidke skill score: -0.219 Heidke skill score: -0.119
true Heidke skill score: 0.041 true Heidke skill score: 0.024
Kuipers skill score: -0.219 Kuipers skill score: -0.119
true Kuipers skill score: 0.088 true Kuipers skill score: 0.038
threat score:
0.083 0.286 0.000
threat score:
0.024 0.278 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.022 0.149 -0.060
equitable threat score:
0.008 0.038 -0.054
probability of detection:
0.083 0.667 0.000
probability of detection:
0.024 0.938 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.667 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.717 1.000
samples: 16 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 25.40 %coverage: 100.00