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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200201

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: monthly Optimal Climate Normal Precip
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
0
0
3
1
1
1
3
1
0
4
5
5
1
5
11

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
0
0
3
35
12
10
57
1
0
4
5
39
12
14
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
27
0
0
27
9
9
9
27
9
0
36
45
45
9
45
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
0
0
5
54
18
15
88
2
0
6
8
60
18
22
100

hitrate: 0.727 hitrate: 0.292
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.60 3.00 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.08 4.75 0.36
Heidke skill score: 0.591 Heidke skill score: -0.062
true Heidke skill score: 0.577 true Heidke skill score: 0.109
Kuipers skill score: 0.591 Kuipers skill score: -0.062
true Kuipers skill score: 0.643 true Kuipers skill score: 0.154
threat score:
0.600 0.333 0.667
threat score:
0.077 0.211 0.267
equitable threat score:
0.450 0.267 0.463
equitable threat score:
0.032 0.032 0.210
probability of detection:
0.600 1.000 0.800
probability of detection:
0.077 1.000 0.286
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.667 0.200
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.789 0.200
samples: 11 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 16.92 %coverage: 100.00