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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199803

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: monthly Screening multiple regression Precip
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
0
1
2
3
0
1
5
6
0
3
7
10

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
4
18
28
50
0
1
5
6
4
20
33
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
10
0
10
0
10
20
30
0
10
50
60
0
30
70
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
0
2
7
32
49
88
0
2
9
11
7
35
58
100

hitrate: 0.600 hitrate: 0.404
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 1.00 0.86
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.25 2.50 0.18
Heidke skill score: 0.400 Heidke skill score: 0.105
true Heidke skill score: 0.184 true Heidke skill score: 0.053
Kuipers skill score: 0.400 Kuipers skill score: 0.105
true Kuipers skill score: 0.214 true Kuipers skill score: 0.063
threat score:
0.000 0.200 0.625
threat score:
0.000 0.346 0.147
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.024 0.211
equitable threat score:
-0.014 0.013 0.050
probability of detection:
0.000 0.333 0.714
probability of detection:
0.000 0.900 0.152
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.667 0.167
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.640 0.167
samples: 10 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 17.54 %coverage: 100.00