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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199806

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Screening multiple regression Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
8
3
0
11
1
0
2
3
0
1
5
6
9
4
7
20

contingency table
fcst
obs
8
3
0
11
19
11
16
46
0
1
5
6
27
15
21
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
40
15
0
55
5
0
10
15
0
5
25
30
45
20
35
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
13
5
0
17
30
17
25
73
0
2
8
10
43
24
33
100

hitrate: 0.650 hitrate: 0.381
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.22 0.75 0.86
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.41 3.07 0.29
Heidke skill score: 0.475 Heidke skill score: 0.071
true Heidke skill score: 0.433 true Heidke skill score: 0.140
Kuipers skill score: 0.475 Kuipers skill score: 0.071
true Kuipers skill score: 0.421 true Kuipers skill score: 0.155
threat score:
0.667 0.000 0.625
threat score:
0.267 0.220 0.227
equitable threat score:
0.433 -0.094 0.492
equitable threat score:
0.130 0.001 0.150
probability of detection:
0.889 0.000 0.714
probability of detection:
0.296 0.733 0.238
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.273 1.000 0.167
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.273 0.761 0.167
samples: 20 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 31.75 %coverage: 100.00