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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199910

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Screening multiple regression Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
2
3
0
5
2
3
1
6

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
7
37
14
58
2
3
0
5
9
40
15
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
17
17
0
0
0
0
33
50
0
83
33
50
17
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
2
2
11
58
22
91
3
5
0
8
14
63
23
100

hitrate: 0.000 hitrate: 0.578
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 0.00 5.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.11 1.45 0.33
Heidke skill score: -0.500 Heidke skill score: 0.367
true Heidke skill score: -0.241 true Heidke skill score: -0.021
Kuipers skill score: -0.500 Kuipers skill score: 0.367
true Kuipers skill score: -0.318 true Kuipers skill score: -0.016
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.607 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.125 0.000 -0.161
equitable threat score:
-0.014 0.030 -0.062
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.925 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.362 1.000
samples: 6 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 9.38 %coverage: 100.00