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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200006

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Screening multiple regression Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
2
4
5
11
2
2
4
8
4
7
9
20

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
19
22
16
57
2
2
4
8
21
25
20
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
5
0
5
10
20
25
55
10
10
20
40
20
35
45
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
0
2
29
33
24
86
3
3
6
12
32
38
30
100

hitrate: 0.400 hitrate: 0.394
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.25 1.57 0.89
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.05 2.28 0.40
Heidke skill score: 0.100 Heidke skill score: 0.091
true Heidke skill score: 0.028 true Heidke skill score: 0.040
Kuipers skill score: 0.100 Kuipers skill score: 0.091
true Kuipers skill score: 0.028 true Kuipers skill score: 0.038
threat score:
0.000 0.286 0.308
threat score:
0.000 0.367 0.167
equitable threat score:
-0.042 0.015 0.043
equitable threat score:
-0.015 0.011 0.073
probability of detection:
0.000 0.571 0.444
probability of detection:
0.000 0.880 0.200
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.636 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.614 0.500
samples: 20 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 30.30 %coverage: 100.00