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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200104

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Screening multiple regression Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
0
0
1
1
1
0
3
4
3
0
4
7

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
5
19
38
62
1
0
3
4
8
19
41
68

% contingency table
fcst
obs
29
0
0
29
0
0
14
14
14
0
43
57
43
0
57
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
0
0
3
7
28
56
91
1
0
4
6
12
28
60
100

hitrate: 0.714 hitrate: 0.353
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.67 -- 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.25 3.26 0.10
Heidke skill score: 0.571 Heidke skill score: 0.029
true Heidke skill score: 0.481 true Heidke skill score: 0.084
Kuipers skill score: 0.571 Kuipers skill score: 0.029
true Kuipers skill score: 0.542 true Kuipers skill score: 0.109
threat score:
0.667 0.000 0.600
threat score:
0.250 0.306 0.071
equitable threat score:
0.533 0.000 0.263
equitable threat score:
0.227 0.038 0.015
probability of detection:
0.667 0.000 0.750
probability of detection:
0.250 1.000 0.073
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.250
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.694 0.250
samples: 7 out of 68 samples: 68 out of 68
%coverage: 10.29 %coverage: 100.00