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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200105

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Screening multiple regression Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
0
3
3
6
0
0
3
3
0
4
6
10

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
2
25
36
63
0
0
3
3
2
26
39
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
10
0
10
0
30
30
60
0
0
30
30
0
40
60
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
3
37
54
94
0
0
4
4
3
39
58
100

hitrate: 0.600 hitrate: 0.418
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 1.50 0.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 2.42 0.08
Heidke skill score: 0.400 Heidke skill score: 0.127
true Heidke skill score: 0.310 true Heidke skill score: 0.044
Kuipers skill score: 0.400 Kuipers skill score: 0.127
true Kuipers skill score: 0.375 true Kuipers skill score: 0.052
threat score:
0.000 0.429 0.500
threat score:
0.000 0.391 0.077
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.130 0.286
equitable threat score:
-0.010 0.014 0.034
probability of detection:
0.000 0.750 0.500
probability of detection:
0.000 0.962 0.077
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.500 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.603 0.000
samples: 10 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 14.93 %coverage: 100.00