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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200106

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Screening multiple regression Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
3
3
1
1
4
6
4
2
8
14
5
3
15
23

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
3
3
13
24
13
50
4
2
8
14
17
26
24
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
13
13
4
4
17
26
17
9
35
61
22
13
65
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
4
4
19
36
19
75
6
3
12
21
25
39
36
100

hitrate: 0.391 hitrate: 0.478
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.60 2.00 0.93
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.18 1.92 0.58
Heidke skill score: 0.087 Heidke skill score: 0.216
true Heidke skill score: -0.126 true Heidke skill score: 0.163
Kuipers skill score: 0.087 Kuipers skill score: 0.216
true Kuipers skill score: -0.133 true Kuipers skill score: 0.155
threat score:
0.000 0.125 0.381
threat score:
0.000 0.462 0.267
equitable threat score:
-0.089 0.030 -0.095
equitable threat score:
-0.040 0.141 0.119
probability of detection:
0.000 0.333 0.533
probability of detection:
0.000 0.923 0.333
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.833 0.429
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.520 0.429
samples: 23 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 34.33 %coverage: 100.00