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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200107

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Screening multiple regression Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
1
1
2
4
1
1
1
3
4
2
3
9

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
15
22
25
62
1
1
1
3
18
23
26
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
22
0
0
22
11
11
22
44
11
11
11
33
44
22
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
0
0
3
22
33
37
93
1
1
1
4
27
34
39
100

hitrate: 0.444 hitrate: 0.373
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 2.00 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.11 2.70 0.12
Heidke skill score: 0.167 Heidke skill score: 0.060
true Heidke skill score: 0.196 true Heidke skill score: 0.046
Kuipers skill score: 0.167 Kuipers skill score: 0.060
true Kuipers skill score: 0.212 true Kuipers skill score: 0.046
threat score:
0.500 0.200 0.200
threat score:
0.111 0.349 0.036
equitable threat score:
0.357 0.027 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.084 0.017 -0.006
probability of detection:
0.500 0.500 0.333
probability of detection:
0.111 0.957 0.038
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.750 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.645 0.667
samples: 9 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 13.43 %coverage: 100.00