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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200108

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Screening multiple regression Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
1
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
0
2
3

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
1
2
4
21
39
64
0
0
1
1
5
21
41
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
33
0
33
67
0
0
0
0
0
0
33
33
33
0
67
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
1
3
6
31
58
96
0
0
1
1
7
31
61
100

hitrate: 0.667 hitrate: 0.343
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.00 -- 0.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.40 3.05 0.02
Heidke skill score: 0.500 Heidke skill score: 0.015
true Heidke skill score: 0.400 true Heidke skill score: 0.047
Kuipers skill score: 0.500 Kuipers skill score: 0.015
true Kuipers skill score: 0.500 true Kuipers skill score: 0.062
threat score:
0.500 0.000 0.500
threat score:
0.167 0.328 0.024
equitable threat score:
0.250 0.000 0.250
equitable threat score:
0.145 0.021 0.010
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.500
probability of detection:
0.200 1.000 0.024
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.672 0.000
samples: 3 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 4.48 %coverage: 100.00