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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200109

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Screening multiple regression Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
4
2
6
12
0
0
3
3
4
2
9
15

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
27
14
23
64
0
0
3
3
27
14
26
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
27
13
40
80
0
0
20
20
27
13
60
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
40
21
34
96
0
0
4
4
40
21
39
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.254
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 6.00 0.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 4.57 0.12
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: -0.119
true Heidke skill score: 0.138 true Heidke skill score: 0.047
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: -0.119
true Kuipers skill score: 0.194 true Kuipers skill score: 0.057
threat score:
0.000 0.167 0.333
threat score:
0.000 0.219 0.115
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.038 0.167
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.012 0.074
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.333
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.115
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.833 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.781 0.000
samples: 15 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 22.39 %coverage: 100.00