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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200110

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Screening multiple regression Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
2
2
0
1
3

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
20
23
20
63
2
0
0
2
22
23
21
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
33
33
0
0
0
0
67
0
0
67
67
0
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
2
2
30
35
30
95
3
0
0
3
33
35
32
100

hitrate: 0.000 hitrate: 0.348
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 -- 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.05 2.74 0.10
Heidke skill score: -0.500 Heidke skill score: 0.023
true Heidke skill score: -0.800 true Heidke skill score: 0.002
Kuipers skill score: -0.500 Kuipers skill score: 0.023
true Kuipers skill score: -1.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.002
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.365 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.286 0.000 -0.286
equitable threat score:
-0.015 0.025 -0.028
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.635 1.000
samples: 3 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 4.55 %coverage: 100.00