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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200201

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Screening multiple regression Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
2
0
1
1
2
0
1
3
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
2
15
47
64
0
1
1
2
2
16
48
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
50
50
0
25
25
50
0
25
75
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
3
23
71
97
0
2
2
3
3
24
73
100

hitrate: 0.250 hitrate: 0.242
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 2.00 0.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 4.00 0.04
Heidke skill score: -0.125 Heidke skill score: -0.136
true Heidke skill score: -0.500 true Heidke skill score: -0.020
Kuipers skill score: -0.125 Kuipers skill score: -0.136
true Kuipers skill score: -0.667 true Kuipers skill score: -0.036
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.250
threat score:
0.000 0.231 0.020
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.200 -0.200
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.010 -0.010
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.333
probability of detection:
0.000 0.938 0.021
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.766 0.500
samples: 4 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 6.06 %coverage: 100.00