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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200202

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Screening multiple regression Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
3
0
0
3
4
2
1
7
7
2
1
10

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
15
22
22
59
4
2
1
7
19
24
23
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
30
0
0
30
40
20
10
70
70
20
10
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
23
33
33
89
6
3
2
11
29
36
35
100

hitrate: 0.100 hitrate: 0.348
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.50 7.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.46 0.30
Heidke skill score: -0.350 Heidke skill score: 0.023
true Heidke skill score: -0.034 true Heidke skill score: -0.021
Kuipers skill score: -0.350 Kuipers skill score: 0.023
true Kuipers skill score: -0.065 true Kuipers skill score: -0.020
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.143
threat score:
0.000 0.361 0.034
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.136 0.048
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.014 -0.054
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.917 0.043
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.857
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.627 0.857
samples: 10 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 15.15 %coverage: 100.00