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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200203

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Screening multiple regression Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
0
4
2
1
1
4
9
1
0
10
13
4
1
18

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
0
4
27
21
4
52
9
1
0
10
38
24
4
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
11
11
0
22
11
6
6
22
50
6
0
56
72
22
6
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
3
0
6
41
32
6
79
14
2
0
15
58
36
6
100

hitrate: 0.167 hitrate: 0.348
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.31 1.00 10.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.11 2.17 2.50
Heidke skill score: -0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.023
true Heidke skill score: -0.098 true Heidke skill score: 0.027
Kuipers skill score: -0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.023
true Kuipers skill score: -0.174 true Kuipers skill score: 0.034
threat score:
0.133 0.143 0.000
threat score:
0.050 0.382 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.073 0.018 -0.053
equitable threat score:
-0.008 0.058 -0.045
probability of detection:
0.154 0.250 0.000
probability of detection:
0.053 0.875 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.750 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.596 1.000
samples: 18 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 27.27 %coverage: 100.00