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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200204

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Screening multiple regression Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
4
4
1
1
1
3
1
1
5
7

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
6
20
38
64
1
1
1
3
7
21
39
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
57
57
14
14
14
43
14
14
71
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
9
30
57
96
1
1
1
4
10
31
58
100

hitrate: 0.143 hitrate: 0.313
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 4.00 0.60
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.05 0.08
Heidke skill score: -0.286 Heidke skill score: -0.030
true Heidke skill score: -0.400 true Heidke skill score: -0.018
Kuipers skill score: -0.286 Kuipers skill score: -0.030
true Kuipers skill score: -0.545 true Kuipers skill score: -0.022
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.143
threat score:
0.000 0.308 0.024
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.129 -0.235
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.001 -0.019
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.200
probability of detection:
0.000 0.952 0.026
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.688 0.667
samples: 7 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 10.45 %coverage: 100.00