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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200205

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Screening multiple regression Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
3
0
8
0
2
1
3
1
0
0
1
6
5
1
12

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
3
0
8
28
19
11
58
1
0
0
1
34
22
11
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
42
25
0
67
0
17
8
25
8
0
0
8
50
42
8
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
7
4
0
12
42
28
16
87
1
0
0
1
51
33
16
100

hitrate: 0.583 hitrate: 0.358
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.33 0.60 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.24 2.64 0.09
Heidke skill score: 0.375 Heidke skill score: 0.037
true Heidke skill score: 0.250 true Heidke skill score: 0.017
Kuipers skill score: 0.375 Kuipers skill score: 0.037
true Kuipers skill score: 0.244 true Kuipers skill score: 0.018
threat score:
0.556 0.333 0.000
threat score:
0.135 0.311 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.200 0.158 -0.043
equitable threat score:
0.029 -0.001 -0.014
probability of detection:
0.833 0.400 0.000
probability of detection:
0.147 0.864 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.375 0.333 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.375 0.672 1.000
samples: 12 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 17.91 %coverage: 100.00