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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200206

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Screening multiple regression Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
7
6
14
0
0
5
5
1
7
11
19

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
6
19
37
62
0
0
5
5
6
19
42
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
5
37
32
74
0
0
26
26
5
37
58
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
9
28
55
93
0
0
7
7
9
28
63
100

hitrate: 0.632 hitrate: 0.358
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.00 0.45
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.26 0.12
Heidke skill score: 0.447 Heidke skill score: 0.037
true Heidke skill score: 0.361 true Heidke skill score: 0.071
Kuipers skill score: 0.447 Kuipers skill score: 0.037
true Kuipers skill score: 0.395 true Kuipers skill score: 0.095
threat score:
0.000 0.500 0.455
threat score:
0.000 0.306 0.119
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.208 0.260
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.032 0.048
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.455
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.119
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.500 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.694 0.000
samples: 19 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 28.36 %coverage: 100.00