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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200207

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Screening multiple regression Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
1
3
1
2
1
4
2
0
1
3
4
3
3
10

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
1
3
4
17
40
61
2
0
1
3
7
18
42
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
10
10
10
30
10
20
10
40
20
0
10
30
40
30
30
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
1
4
6
25
60
91
3
0
1
4
10
27
63
100

hitrate: 0.400 hitrate: 0.284
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.75 1.33 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.43 3.39 0.07
Heidke skill score: 0.100 Heidke skill score: -0.075
true Heidke skill score: 0.104 true Heidke skill score: 0.009
Kuipers skill score: 0.100 Kuipers skill score: -0.075
true Kuipers skill score: 0.106 true Kuipers skill score: 0.012
threat score:
0.167 0.400 0.200
threat score:
0.111 0.274 0.023
equitable threat score:
-0.042 0.211 0.024
equitable threat score:
0.079 0.013 -0.021
probability of detection:
0.250 0.667 0.333
probability of detection:
0.143 0.944 0.024
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.500 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.721 0.667
samples: 10 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 14.93 %coverage: 100.00