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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200208

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: monthly Screening multiple regression Temp
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
2
2
1
1
0
2
0
0
0
0
1
1
2
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
2
2
11
27
27
65
0
0
0
0
11
27
29
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
50
50
25
25
0
50
0
0
0
0
25
25
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
3
3
16
40
40
97
0
0
0
0
16
40
43
100

hitrate: 0.250 hitrate: 0.403
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.00 2.00 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.18 2.41 0.00
Heidke skill score: -0.125 Heidke skill score: 0.104
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.012
Kuipers skill score: -0.125 Kuipers skill score: 0.104
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.011
threat score:
0.000 0.500 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.415 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.200 0.333 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.026 0.021 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.500 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.585 0.000
samples: 4 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 5.97 %coverage: 100.00